Monday, November 06, 2006

Let's have our election

A democracy is a place where numerous elections are held, at great cost, without issues, and with interchangeable candidates. – Gore Vidal

Lets have our election, shall we? It's really a lot like the Super Bowl for political aficianados. For most of us regular guys, it resembles the Super Bowl that has two teams we don't really care about; but you know we have to root for someone. They only let two teams play in it after all, and one of them is usually favored to win by 51% or so of the populace.

On the one side, we have the underdog republicans, who after fumbling away nearly every scoring opportunity since 1994 find themselves in a position to tie the game at the final gun. On the other sideline is the democrats who had benefitted from the republican ineptitude that seemed to get worse with every election cycle. Inexplicably, they put John Kerry in at QB, and he singlehandedly resurrected the chances for the GOP by throwing an interception to the military.

It's easy to believe that John Kerry changed the dynamic, but I think differently; I believe that most Americans already knew who John Kerry is. The real reason the polls are shifting now is that ---surprise!--- they were never accurate to begin with. The interesting fact of polling is that you can design a poll to get whatever results you want. If you want a 15% Democrat lead, you can manufacture one. The motivation to do so is very strong.The psychology of weak minded people is that they want to side with the winner; so the polls are designed to sway the last of the weak minded individuals over to one side. The polling organizations have to show a closing gap, or be exposed to high levels of error when the true results are counted.

So, look for all the polls to close to within 2 % (the real difference) sometime today. They probably have enough weak minded voters by now to get the job done. It might be fun to see the underdog pull one out, though.

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