Wednesday, May 21, 2014

The Culture of Deceit

Sometimes I'm not sure how to take O'Keefe. Exposing liberal hypocrisy is a little like exposing a tornado as a major source of wind. To the tornado, that's the whole point, and to the rest of us, it's kind of obvious.

The liberals believe that the ends completely justify the means, and they won't condemn their own, whether it be over voter fraud, judicial activism, or a the culture of deceit.


From: Severian 

Monday, May 05, 2014

A non-fight

What persons on all three sides of the gay marriage issue are missing:

  1. The federal government has no standing to govern contracts between individuals. 
  2. The state government has no standing other than enforcement of legal contracts. 
  3. Two people can enter in any contract they wish.
  4. There should be no legal distinction between a marriage and a legal contract of the same kind.
Therefore, persons who exercise their legal rights to enter into a contract can do so whenever and however they wish. If they call it a marriage, that's archaic, but not controversial. Nobody should care. This is a non-fight, and should go away. 

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Chart of the Day #27

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.  -- Ludwig von Mises






Economists and the New Numbers Racket


At one time I thought about being an economist. It seemed like a good path with much fertile ground for doing useful work. There is a definite need for economic characteristics and forecasting. The basic principles were simple to understand, and a talent for pattern recognition and curve fitting could be put to good use. Where it seemed to fall apart is in three key areas:

One, economic modelling can be swamped by economic policy making, such that distortions introduced by external factors would render any model or forecast unusable and misleading. 

Two, an economic model demands assumptions which depend on people doing everything they do in a predictable manner, and over an indefinite period of time. While all of us can be sure the sun will rise tomorrow, we can't be sure our brother-in-law will pick us up at the airport at 9:30. So, any forecast is doomed to failure on the human action front anyway.

Three, since economics involves money, there is incentive on the parts of many to distort the numbers further to gain a financial or political advantage. This makes economics akin to associating with thieves. Thieves with calculators, using flawed models, and applying gross misapplications of data.

As most of you know, I returned to product development instead. When you design something that doesn't depend on your brother-in-law, it can also be done without sleeping with the enemy.

The Sad State of the Economics Profession

"Although some will receive a higher minimum wage, many others will simply be thrown under the bus. "


Monday, January 27, 2014

Introducing (?) Wizercare


While legislation can stimulate and encourage, the real creative ability which builds up and develops the country, and in general makes human existence more tolerable and life more complete, has to be supplied by the genius of the people themselves. The Government can supply no substitute for enterprise. - Calvin Coolidge

Governments have a tendency not to solve problems, only to rearrange them. - Ronald Reagan

The people who conceived of The Affordable Care Act typically defend it by saying its detractors offer no alternative. My first reaction to that is a better alternative to a government program is almost always "no" government program. But I think the point needs to be amplified, especially now that we know Obamacare is a failed system.

I think it is helpful to examine the whole matter on the basis of the constitution. The constitution, you may have heard reserves almost everything to the states. this it does implicitly in the Articles, and explicitly in the Bill of Rights. There. I had to say that, because it's something they don't teach in school any more.

I have trouble getting past that in the evaluation of a federal program, nevertheless I'm willing to set that aside for the remainder of this discussion. Let's pretend that the constitution does not exist, and address the question: How do you evaluate this health care program vs. the problem it was trying to solve? To examine that, we have to deconstruct a little further.

What might make sense in a free country is that we as a people might delegate certain activities to the federal government. As a free people, we may assess our certain risks, such as risks of organized invasion or of common enemies like disease and pestilence. We might reasonably allow a government to provide these essential services, and to proscribe a fair method to pay for them. So far so good.

Is it necessary to have a government for defense? No, it could be funded by merchants, like it was before the revolutionary war. But is it better to consolidate our defensive resources and deploy them in a more efficient way? Sure! Is the government the best way to do that? Debateable. But I'm going to concede that point too, to get to the end of this.

I usually come down on the side of the value added angle. Does the government provide a useful activity, or is it a net loss in value to the people.

If the idea was to get more people on the insurance rolls, this did not happen. In fact, as Jonah Goldberg points out, the number of people uninsured increased as a direct result of the plan. For this, we need a trillion dollar program?

If the idea was to reduce the overall cost of health care, well, chapters and verses are written on the increased costs medical centers are dealing with:
"The Affordable Care Act is basically insurance reform—eligibility and access—and basically, they are going to pay for that by reducing the reimbursement. It doesn't modernize how we drive to higher quality care," Dr. John Noseworthy said in a "Squawk Box" interview.
If the problem is health care for all, the reduction in doctors and nurses in the system surely makes that goal unachievable in the long run.

So, depending on what the problem was that they were trying to solve, it's clear that the opposite is happening. So, since we are reconstructing the "shouldas" with a blank slate and a beneficial unrestricted government, what could the government conceivably do to help the problems noted.

The solutions are very simple. Not easy, but simple.
  1. Reduce regulations on medical care. 
    1. Deregulate most medical services, such that service can be provided at low costs. 
    2. Revamp certification medical requirements to reduce the cost of medical school. 
  2. Tort reform. Limit malpractice benefits.
  3. Reduce regulation on medicines, and allow self-prescription for most remedies (penicillin, pain meds, etc..
  4. Make medical insurance a private market.
    1. Eliminate medical benefits provided by government.
    2. Replace with like amount in worker salaries, and have workers contract their own insurance.
  5.  Consider giving tax benefits to corporations that eliminate insurance plans, thereby putting health insurance back into a free market.
  6. Allow experimental medicines to proceed on the basis of a willing buyer signoff
These steps would reduce the cost of medical care to the point where insurance costs would naturally fall, and more people would seek health insurance. The remainder who are in genuine need can be subsidized at a very small fraction of the cost for the current program.

To proceed the way we are is proof that either our elected officials are incompetent or that they are disingenuous about their intent. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, they must be idiots.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Wizer One-Liner # 31


Why should anyone be comforted by the term "bipartisan agreement"?

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Can't Raise the Bridge? Just Lower the Water..

What's the best way to ensure that we get a gee-whiz-largest-decline-in recent-history number for weekly jobless claims?

First, you go with seasonal adjustments, which make it possible to over-ride any inconvenient trends. Then, you bump up the number from the previous week so it looks like there's some daylight..

The newspapers helpfully report it as a huge decline. Merry Christmas everyone.


Uh course the numbers aren't all that great, when you see them side by side, but hey, it's the buzz phrase that counts.

In related news, I had the least amount of turkey on record in my Christmas ham dinner yesterday.


Thursday, December 19, 2013

Chart of the Day #26

We should probably be somewhat relieved that the bucket gets filled at $10 billion less a month; but lest anyone thinks this is a big improvement, take a look at this chart from ZeroHedge.


Market Players are happy to take this as a sign that they can run free and easy in the market for a long while before A: a real taper happens, or B: something unforeseen happens.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Odds and Ends

People often make rational economic decisions, even with large numbers. Take the Powerball lottery for example. The  chances of getting the top prize is understood to be one in 175 million. Many people are willing to play whenever the top prize exceeds that. After all, only when it is over 175 large is it a fair bet; and you are playing then with other people's money -- other people being the ones who played the previous 5 weeks and didn't win. But wait, there's more: the odds are greater than 50-50 that by the time the number rises to 175 million, you will be splitting the pot with someone else. This is because more players dive in.



You see, the Powerball market wants you to believe there is a rational play here, but there really isn't. Game theory aficionados will all see the fallacy of the numbers, and the play is limited to those who are bad at math.

Which brings me to the stock market. There are big numbers there, too, but the same people who rationally play when they believe the odds are in their favor are now jumping into a market after the odds of continued gain have clearly worsened. Like the Powerball game, there is only so much money to go around. Unlike Powerball, the prices of the tickets continues to rise, as the Fed stretches the asset bubble one more step.






Stock prices can continue to rise, in concert with the Federal Reserve moneyprinting. At some point, however, there has to be earnings that stay up with the valuations. This is where the game tops out. Earnings for the nation's corporations in the recent past are due to the fact that they haven't hired anyone or invested any money since 2009 (thanks to the uncertainty of Obamacare). Further growth from here depends on total wages going up. The Fed's strategy for that is to keep the printers going. However, the fiscal policy is to maintain uncertainty, so we sit and wait. Meanwhile, the price of a pound of bacon is $5.00.

One indicator of stock market valuation is Cyclically Averaged Price to Earnings ratio or Shiller P/E after the Yale economist who first reported it.

One figure to keep in mind. The average stock price to earnings ratio over the decades is 16.5. Today it is 25.4. If the earnings begin to fall faster (as I expect they will), we will be back up to 2000 dotcom numbers in a jiffy. Note that Wikipedia defines a jiffy as 3 × 10−24 seconds.
When this snaps back, how is everybody who plays going to get their gambling money back? Answer: They're Not.


Thursday, November 14, 2013