At one time I thought about being an economist. It seemed like a good path with much fertile ground for doing useful work. There is a definite need for economic characteristics and forecasting. The basic principles were simple to understand, and a talent for pattern recognition and curve fitting could be put to good use. Where it seemed to fall apart is in three key areas:
One, economic modelling can be swamped by economic policy making, such that distortions introduced by external factors would render any model or forecast unusable and misleading.
Two, an economic model demands assumptions which depend on people doing everything they do in a predictable manner, and over an indefinite period of time. While all of us can be sure the sun will rise tomorrow, we can't be sure our brother-in-law will pick us up at the airport at 9:30. So, any forecast is doomed to failure on the human action front anyway.
Three, since economics involves money, there is incentive on the parts of many to distort the numbers further to gain a financial or political advantage. This makes economics akin to associating with thieves. Thieves with calculators, using flawed models, and applying gross misapplications of data.
As most of you know, I returned to product development instead. When you design something that doesn't depend on your brother-in-law, it can also be done without sleeping with the enemy.
The Sad State of the Economics Profession
"Although some will receive a higher minimum wage, many others will simply be thrown under the bus. "
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