Indiana Matters

There are no easy answers, but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right. -- Ronald Reagan

It comes down to Indiana, it appears. If Cruz wins, it starts to look like he can hold serve on the first ballot, after which some interesting political dynamics will emerge. Most people who have voted in this election won't be able to follow the nuanced difference between a bound and unbound delegate, or first ballot abstentions and other parliamentary maneuvers. If Indiana goes to Cruz, it's very possible that Trump will not be the candidate. If, instead, Trump wins, he may eventually get a majority strong enough to withstand some convention floor defections.  

I lived most of my adult life in Indiana, so I am intrigued by watching this. What I can tell you about Hoosiers is that they are as likely to vote for the son of a businessman as they are the son of a preacher. Either way, they expect they will be hiring a guy who can fix a system that's been broken for 8 years. Whichever one it shall be, depends a lot more on style than it really should. Substance is a dicey thing. If substantive issues are raised, Hoosiers will give it due consideration. If no substantive issues are raised, then it all defaults to style.

Trump has ensured that no substantive issues are getting any oxygen. It's all about hand size, apparently. Or the rigged system. Or maybe it's the Mexicans. Who knows? Can anyone tell me what Making America Great Again actually means? There's a reason why this slogan sounds a lot like "Change You Can Believe In" and Yes, We Can".  The reason is that there is no practical difference between Trump and Obama, and no difference at all between Trump and Clinton.

So why would Hoosiers be as likely to vote for Trump as Cruz? The answer is they watch the news. When he says he will build a wall, and the press doesn't call him on it, they think that maybe a wall is a good idea. When he says he will make better trade deals, and the press doesn't challenge it, it sounds like a good idea. The easy challenge that a news person can make is that there is a world of difference between "trade deals" and "free trade". People conflate the two, because .... well because isn't government supposed to help the economy?

That rhetorical question is why the Donald gets so much benefit of the doubt. Hoosiers still trust that government can be used for the good of the people. They just don't believe politicians are likely to help, so the best choice, instinctively, is someone other than a politician. Another group of Hoosiers are paying close attention and find that there actually is a choice that fights for the people, and against the Crony establishment. It's not the one they press tell you it is, it's the other guy.

This is why it could go either way. There are still a lot of Hoosiers who believe that government can be a positive force, just not this government. Like Obama, Trump is not the guy they want to believe he is.