I wonder if Welles foresaw Al Franken, or whether it was a lucky guess. It is popular among pundits these days to handicap the race for president. At this time, few pundits have really tried to reduce the election to a manageable set of characters. After all, in a card game, you don't throw away until you have to, and certainly pundits don't have to before the fat lady takes center stage. People who rely on pundits usually get bad advice, however. At the risk of sounding like one of those pundits, I am giving you the August scorecard, showing who is (or should be) eliminated, and who still stands to have a shot at the oval office.
I don't want to overstate importance of this office. Certainly it's going to be either a republican or a democrat, so how good can he/she be? Besides, if they stick to the constitution, they could be as great a president as Calvin Coolidge, or not, and become a miserable failure like his successor Herbert Hoover. If you don't know much about either of those two, than you have been victimized by your 12th grade history teacher, and should therefore follow my lead..
Here is my list of candidates that still have a decent chance of earning a vote, vs the ones who belong in the early debates.
First, the democrats and near democrats:
Mark O'Malley: Thinks the problem is wages. Blames the climate for stuff. But someone has to win his primary, so I'll leave him in for now.
Joe Biden: It could be a big effin deal if he runs. No way to know what he thinks, but he could win.
Now the republicans and near republicans:
Lindsey Graham: Wants to pick fights with everybody in the middle east, and half the citizens of the US. OTOH, he is okie dokie with limited government, and wouldn't start any wars all by himself.
Rand Paul: Should know better than to get in a wrestling match with a pig. This probably isn't his year.
Rick Perry: I like him as governor of Texas. He should probably be preparing a secession brief; but as long as he's in there, let's hear about a few more departments he would eliminate.
Carly Fiorina: And they say that Trump is a truth teller. He doesn't hold a candle to Carly.
Bobby Jindal: Gets a pass for now.
Marco Rubio: VP material
Ted Cruz: Will probably inherit the Trump vote. It won't be enough. But I like him.
Ben Carson: Talks a good game. Probably good to have in a scalpel fight, too.
Scott Walker: Oh yeah, I almost forgot about Scott Walker.
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