A New (OLD) Idea

A person with a new idea is a crank until the idea succeeds. --Mark Twain

The crankiest guy in the Republican field is this guy, Ron Paul. When you hear some of what he says, it will tick you off, but then you have to think about it (it won't hurt, I promise).

First, you must understand that we have not had a Republican in the white house since the end of 1988. Since then, we have one neocon after another hiding behind the banner of compassionate whateverism. Once you realize that there were and are imposters lined up for the office since then, only then can you triangulate to somewhere any of us would care to be.

I do watch the polls starting around this time of year, and I've found the real interesting stuff comes out of the Iowa Electronic Market. In the IEM, people bet real money on who will be the next president. The two most interesting things are that Hillary is even money against all other candidates to be the Democrat nominee, and in the Republican side, "None of the Above" beats out Rudy, McC, and Mitt. None of the Above? That means people betting real money see none of these jamokes making the cut. So, who then?

No, I don't think it will be Ron Paul. Ron is too much like Phil Gramm was in 1996, and Howard Dean in 2004. A lot of noisy fans, but not much real support. These candidates (all of whom embodied what their party stood for) didn't make the critical breakthroughs, and none of them looked particularly presidential. That's not to say Ron Paul isn't worth voting for, though.

Among the new ideas Ron Paul is espousing are: The first amendment. The 10th amendment. The fourth amendment. The 2nd amendment,...hmmm, I think I'm spotting a trend here.

He may actually be the only Republican in the field by the time Super Tuesday rolls around, and likely the only one carrying around a copy of the constitution with him (that's where the new/old comes from--it's so old it's new...kinda retro, you know?)

And ---since the smart money seems to be saying that the field is not set yet, it should be very interesting to watch.

UPDATE: Now the Iowa Electronic Market. has posted Fred Thompson's name and it turns out that the smart money was on him all along. They say the market does not lie...